Great Trends Site

PSFK

Internet Devices

A few years ago, devices exclusively designed for internet access were introduced and failed. But with the continued growth of the online, and a lot more programmes going online, e.g. google docs etc..I reckon the time is ripe for stripped down computers only designed for internet access.

The Future of the Music Industry

The guys from Freakanomics have good stuff on the future of the music biz, here

The Future of Travel

The Guardian has an interesting story on the future of travel.

Predict the future

Check out the Pop-Sci predictions exchange, where you can bet on the future of science and technology.
It is currently predicting that Compact Fluorescent Lightbulbs will Gain Market Share and that Google will overtake Yahoo.

Games

Short
The success of the Wii in unlocking new markets will be copied by Sony and Microsoft, expect family and female focused games, along with a copycat controller system.
Games budgets will continue rise and rise, along with our expectations.


Long
Templates for game types will emerge i.e. a first person shooter game engine, which can be modified easily. This is already happening with some game components, such as Havok's physics engine.
This trend will assist users in developing their own content, based upon game engines, thus bringing the cost of game development down.

Hard Drives

Short:
Fujitsu has developed a hard disk manufacturing technology that will fit 1.2 Terabytes
on to a 2.5" HDD, story here

Long:
All mobile hard drives will be flash drives, lower power consumption and more durable. Besides if your device is always connected, who needs big mobile storage.

CCTV, Crime and Punishiment

Short:
Continued growth of CCTV coverage.
IP CCTV becomes the favored medium.
More city's use smart camera systems for road pricing, the technology gets better and cheaper.
More countries use smart camera systems for road policing, speeding, dangerous overtaking, bus lanes etc...

Long:
Ubiquitous camera coverage will change policing, probably resulting in fewer cops.
The same ubiquitous coverage could change the legal profession as well, as many crimes will be either directly filmed or have strong circumstantial evidence resulting from filming, resulting in shorter and simpler trials.

Retail

Short:
The power of wholesalers and resellers is being eroded by information, if your profit margins are high expect them to come under attack.

Long:
There is a strong move towards a cashless society, in Japan small purchases can be made with your mobile phone.

Publishing

Short:
The Economist had a good story on Flavor Pill and Le Cool this week. Both are good examples of developing media trends, acting as a cultural filter and growing via word of mouth. Both are also very profitable.

Long:
Books won't go out of fashion, the type of paper will change. I don't know what to, but i do know that backlit screens hurt my eyes.

The World in 2040

Goldman Sachs forecast that the top five economies in 2040, will be China, India, U.S, Russia, Brazil.
Further details here.

Biomimetics

Good Guardian artical on technology from nature here

Amercian TV

Short:
From the look of Hero's ,the network agreement over adult themes, violence, sex and language is breaking up. This is largely thanks to HBO. Its a good step, TV in America is finally growing up.
More and more product placement as the effectiveness of traditional adverts falls off.

Long:
There is huge scope for new business models in content delivery, as the advert supported model falls apart.
Digitalization allows delivery of more relevant commercials, but its a doubled edged sword as it gives media consumers so much choice that they don't have the time to be interrupted, even if its relevant.

Technorati

Hi
Somebody tagged me on technorati, Thanks!
Technorati Profile

Green Energy

Short:
Coal will become cleaner and greener, via better scrubbers, carbon capture and gasification. It is still the cheapest and most abundant energy source we have.
Cellulose ethanol is a lot more promising than corn ethanol which is is a big threat to biodiversity and the poor.
Reducing transmission loss would save us 20%.

Long:
Nuclear Fusion could be the answer.
Probably not hydrogen, as it is too expensive and too explosive.
I heard that 100 square miles of solar in space would be enough for all our needs, how to get the power back to us is the problem.

Genetics

Short:
Diagnostic techniques to detect a single gene or gene expression will be hot, think Diabetes or Asthma.
Better knowledge of genetic will allow tailored drug treatment, which will increase effectiveness and reduce side effects.

Long:
Most people in the developed world will have their genome sequenced.
Medical insurers or HMO's will get their hands on the results.

Aircraft

Short:
The hub and spoke system will be eroded by medium sized long range jets, like the Dreamliner.

Long:
Costs are going to rise as oil peaks, and there are no feasible substitutes.

Mobile / Cell Phones

Short:
3G price wars will reduce the barriers to adoption.
GPRS integration will make phones more useful.
Carriers will give up on their stupid walled garden approach to the net.
Push to talk for voice calls.

Long:
Wi-Max or similar to surpass 3G (expensive mistake)
Voip for voice calls.
Shortish (7-15min) video clips will be popular.
Handset makers need to realise that mobile phones and high quality video are mutually exclusive, the screens will always be too small.
Lots of spare processing capacity.

Jobs

Short Range
Professions that require expertise in short intensive chunks will see more and outsourcing, like H.R and marketing, project management. Strategy and even some high level finance functions will lend themselves to the agency approach.
More and more CAM, More and more CAD operators.

Long
Knowledge intensive professions like medicine and law could face a threat from semantic computing.

Roads

Short
Wires down the centre of major roads to prevent head on crashes.
Better traffic management!
More contra-flow lanes, what a great idea.
Congestion charging will spread.
Automated traffic law enforcement, bus lane cameras in the U.K issue fixed penalties for driving in the bus lane using number plate recognition

Long
Cars that drive themselves at least on motorways, highways, speedways etc..as long as the insurance issues can be overcome.
Two way GPS so we can be aware of other traffic, i.e overtaking, traffic jams.
Automated traffic flow management, that releases traffic onto motorways when there is a gap large enough to avoid disruption to the overall traffic flow.
GPS monitored road pricing, more you drive the more tax you pay.

Power of Nightmares 3

Power of Nightmares 2

Power of Nightmares

Ok, i know this has nothing to do with trends, but it is brilliant and i told my brother i would post it!


You can download the show at the internet archive, here

Century of the Self 4

Century of the Self 3

Century of the Self 2

Century of the Self 1

The Streets

Short Range:
No more phone boxes.
Every car and every phone will have GPS, who needs street signs then?
Local area WiFi networks in all major population centres
CCTV everywhere


Long Range
Better traffic management and less traffic, one day! A green light for no cars is a crime against my time!
Just like Minority Report, our RFID products will be used to identify us!

Houses

Short Term:
Short range wireless power.
RFID everywhere.
No more incandescent light bulbs

Long Term:
House prices will fall across Europe and Japan as demographic change reduces demand.
More and more one person households

Your trends

Innovation
Here is Guy Kawasaki helping you make your own trends


Strategy and Innovation
Smart growth strategies from former Starbuck's executive Kerry Plemmons
Here

Irish Weather

Short Range Trends:
Getting hotter in the East and South.
Getting wetter in the North and West.

Long Range Trends:
If the gulf stream goes away, then Ireland and Northern Europe will get much colder, with some predicting snow on the ground 100 days per year.

Dublin Property

Short Range Trends:
No more petrol stations.

Long Range Trends:
City centre property prices will increase in value as transport costs rise.

Dubai

Short Range Trends:
Continued insane expenditure on tourism
Rising labour costs

Long Range Trends:
The oil runs out....tourism is supposed to replace the oil revenue ,but there is no oil for the planes.

Computers

Short Range Trends:
Never delete anything!
Only flash drives in laptops.
M-RAM
Phones=laptops
Excess processing capacity, what to do with it?

Long Range Trends:
Spintronics
Semantics

Pharmaceutical

Short Term Trends:
Bounties on specific illness, i.e €800m to develop a drug to treat bird flu.

Long Term Trends:
Break up of the pharmaceutical value chain, research, clinical trials and manufacturing will split.

Finance

Short Term Trends:
Credit risk is being under estimated.
Interest rates will rise slightly (ECB) and then fall slightly.

Long Term Trends:
Interest rates will rise to curb energy inflation.

Nations

Short Term Trends:
Japan, Germany and Italy are in big trouble. Too many old people.

Long Term Trends:
China is in big trouble, not enough young people, due to one child policy.

Jobs and Careers

Short Term Trends:
Recruitment agencies will suffer the same fate as real estate agents, their matching function will be taken by online databases.

Long Term Trends:
Farming and manufacturing jobs could return to the developed world, once transport prices rise.

Music

Short Range Trends:
Barriers to entry are low, expect continued diversification. More and more bands.
Bye bye DRM

Long Range Trends:
Artists will only make money from live gigs, recordings will serve as marketing.

Media

Short Range Trends:
TV stations will lose ad revenue.
The Sopranos will be missed.
Return on investment will be key in advertising.
Blue Ray or HD, who cares? we are going to download everything anyway.
More targeting more relevance.
P.R is becoming more important.

Long Range Trends:
Pay per view for new TV shows
Product placement will grow.
Adverts in new places, mobiles, games etc..
Nobody likes ads anyway, they just want good products and services.

Energy

Short Range Trends:
Biofuels will destroy rain forest and raise food prices.
Peak oil will hit.
Nuclear will be back in fashion.

Long Range Trends:
Hydrogen could be the answer.
Solar is a big part of the answer.
Biofuels will be forgotten.
Ways to reduce transmission loss will be big.
Natural gas prices will rise faster than oil.

Medical

Short Range Trends:
Increasing self diagnosis using the internet.
Medical tourism.
commodity cosmetic procedures.
Antibiotics will fail.
Hospitals will spend more on being cleaner.


Long Range Trends:
MRI scanners in every doctors office.
Long distance diagnosis by doctors in Delhi.
Genome mapping for under $1000.
Personalized medicine using our mapped genomes

Real Estate

Short Range Trends:
Online property databases will begin to replace real estate agents.

Long Range Trends:
No more real estate agents.

Legal

Short Range Trends:
Property related areas such as conveyancing and title search will become the domain of specialist non legal firms.

Long Range Trends:
No more common law lawyers,contact for details.

Retail

Short Range Trends:
No more check outs.
RFID everywhere.
Increased customer profiling, loyalty cards.
No more video dvd rental stores.
No more repair shops.

Long Range Trends:
No more music/dvd/game stores.
Rising energy and transport costs will push up food prices and change supply chains.
Lower food miles.

Construction

Short range trends:
Off site construction methods.
Buildings Energy performance will become more important.

Long range trends:
Automated construction due to rising labour costs.
Increased energy costs as a percentage of total build cost.